Scientists Warn of ‘City-Destroying’ Asteroid— Here’s When it May Hit Earth

Scientists have issued a warning about a newly identified ‘city-destroying’ asteroid that has a potential chance of colliding with Earth within the next decade.

The space rock, designated 2024 YR4, measures nearly 200 feet across and carries a 1.2 percent probability of striking our planet on December 22, 2032.

If it were to impact a densely populated area, such as a major city, it could cause devastating destruction.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, first spotted last year, is roughly the same size as the Tunguska asteroid, which caused one of the most powerful explosions in recorded history when it entered Earth’s atmosphere in 1908, reportedly resulting in three fatalities.

This event, known as an ‘air burst,’ took place over Siberia, where the explosion—equivalent to 50 million tons of TNT—leveled approximately 80 million trees across 830 square miles of forest.

On December 22, 2032, the asteroid is expected to pass about 66,000 miles from Earth.

However, due to uncertainties in its orbit, there remains a slight chance of a direct collision.

Following its discovery, asteroid 2024 YR4 was immediately placed at the top of NASA’s automated Sentry risk list, which ranks Near Earth Objects (NEOs) based on their likelihood of striking our planet.

If it were to enter Earth’s atmosphere, the asteroid might explode mid-air, similar to the Tunguska event.

However, astronomers also acknowledge that it could remain intact during descent, crashing into the surface and forming a massive crater, devastating any human settlements in its path.

Fortunately, the likelihood of 2024 YR4 striking Earth remains low. Even in the rare event of an impact, scientists are uncertain about the extent of damage it might cause.

This uncertainty arises because the impact force depends on unknown factors such as the asteroid’s composition and a more precise estimate of its size, according to experts.

“People should absolutely not worry about this yet,” said Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter David Rankin in an interview with Space.com.

“Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approaching rock that misses us,” he added.

He further explained that the current “risk corridor,” or the estimated region where the asteroid would be most likely to strike, stretches from South America across the Atlantic Ocean to sub-Saharan Africa.

However, Rankin noted that this risk corridor could change with further observations and improved orbit calculations.

Scientists Warn of ‘City-Destroying’ Asteroid— Here’s When it May Hit Earth
The current ‘risk corridor,’ or the geographical area where the 2024 YR4 is most likely to hit, runs from South America across the Atlantic Ocean to sub-Saharan Africa

Scientists Warn of ‘City-Destroying’ Asteroid— Here’s When it May Hit Earth
Analysis of 2024 YR4’s orbit indicates that the asteroid will come within 66,000 miles of Earth on December 22, 2032. But when orbital uncertainties are factored in, it turns out there is a 1.2 percent chance of it directly hitting our planet 

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially detected by a NASA-funded initiative called the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), which employs four ground-based telescopes to repeatedly scan the sky for moving objects.

On December 27, 2024, an ATLAS telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, identified the asteroid when it was approximately 27 million miles away.

Shortly after its discovery, automated asteroid monitoring systems determined that the object would make a close approach to Earth in about eight years.

The asteroid is currently rated a three on the Torino risk scale, which is used to categorize potential Earth impact threats.

A rating of three means that 2024 YR4 warrants continued monitoring by astronomers, as it is expected to have a near-Earth encounter with a greater than one percent chance of impact.

However, experts still lack crucial details about 2024 YR4, making it difficult to fully assess the potential threat it poses.

“Size and composition are big players in possible damage, along with impact location,” Rankin explained.

“It’s hard to constrain size and composition with the current orbital situation, as it’s outbound,” or moving away from Earth, he added.

According to Rankin, radar observations are typically the most effective method for accurately determining an asteroid’s size.

This technique involves bouncing radio waves or microwaves off the asteroid’s surface and analyzing the reflected signals to calculate its dimensions.

Scientists Warn of ‘City-Destroying’ Asteroid— Here’s When it May Hit Earth
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is about the same size as the Tunguska asteroid, which caused the largest impact event in recorded history when it shot through Earth’s atmosphere in 1908

Scientists Warn of ‘City-Destroying’ Asteroid— Here’s When it May Hit Earth
The Tunguska asteroid exploded in the air over Siberia in what’s known as an ‘air burst,’ and a blast equivalent to detonating 50 million tons of TNT that flattened an estimated 80 million trees over 830 square miles of forest. Experts say Asteroid 2024 YR4 could cause a similar event

Currently, however, astronomers are unable to use radar on 2024 YR4 because it remains too distant. They may have a chance to conduct radar measurements in 2028, when the asteroid is expected to come within about 5 million miles of Earth, Rankin said.

Until then, scientists must rely on the asteroid’s absolute magnitude, or brightness, to estimate its size indirectly.

Based on these calculations, its approximate diameter is thought to be around 196 feet. However, this estimate assumes a particular level of surface reflectivity, which may not be accurate.

“If the asteroid has a darker surface, that number is too small; if it has a more reflective surface, that number is too high,” Rankin noted.

The reflectivity of an asteroid depends on its composition, which also influences how it behaves upon entering Earth’s atmosphere.

“If [asteroid 2024 YR4] is made of stony material, it could cause a significant air burst and fireball reaching the ground,” Rankin said.

“If made of iron, it will punch right through the atmosphere with little trouble and make an impact crater. This is why understanding not just the orbit but also the composition and size are so critical.”

Now that 2024 YR4 has been recognized as a potential—though unlikely—hazard, astronomers are racing to gather as much information about it as possible before 2032.



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