The ozone hole over Antarctica is currently relatively small and stable, offering more evidence that the ozone layer is on a path toward full recovery.
That’s the positive news. However, the downside is that the present size of the ozone hole is tied to sudden stratospheric warming over Antarctica in July, which led to unusually high temperatures across large areas of the continent.
Aside from these concerningly warm temperatures near the South Pole, the latest data regarding the ozone layer is promising. The current trend indicates that the ozone could completely recover to its 1980 levels (before the ozone hole emerged) by approximately 2066 over the Antarctic, by 2045 over the Arctic, and by 2040 for the rest of the globe.
“The ozone layer, once an ailing patient, is on the road to recovery,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated in a speech.
The ozone layer is a part of the stratosphere situated between 15 and 30 kilometers (9.3 to 18.6 miles) above the Earth’s surface, where the concentration of ozone gas is higher than in other parts of the atmosphere.
By absorbing a portion of the Sun’s harmful ultraviolet rays, it functions as a shield for life on Earth. During the 1970s and ’80s, it became clear that a significant hole in the ozone layer was being formed by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) – human-made chemicals once widely used in aerosol sprays, solvents, and refrigerants – which degrade the layer after reaching the stratosphere.
The World Meteorological Organization published the most recent update on World Ozone Day, September 16, commemorating the signing of the Montreal Protocol in 1987, a global agreement that successfully banned CFCs worldwide.
It is considered one of the most effective international agreements ever achieved and remains the only UN treaty that has been ratified by all 197 parties.
“At a time when multilateralism is under severe strain, the Montreal Protocol stands out as a symbol of hope,” Guterres added in recent remarks. “When countries demonstrate political will for the collective good, meaningful change can happen.”
The ozone layer is complex, and many factors influence its health. The hole’s size fluctuates with the seasons, forming in August and reaching its largest size around October before closing in late November.
As the EU’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) noted, the hole over Antarctica appeared later than usual this year due to disruptions in the polar vortex caused by two episodes of sudden stratospheric warming in July 2024. Consequently, it is smaller than usual for this time of year.
Despite this, the data indicates that the hole is following its expected course and remains on track for long-term recovery.
“From volcanoes to climate change, numerous factors directly or indirectly influence the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole. However, none have the same impact as human-made ozone-depleting substances. The Montreal Protocol and its amendments have given the ozone layer the opportunity to heal, and we can expect further signs of recovery to emerge over the next forty years,” said Laurence Rouil, Director of CAMS at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, in a statement.
“This highlights how humanity can, through international cooperation and science-based decisions, change the way we affect the planet’s atmosphere.”
