So far, there hasn’t been a recorded case of falling space debris hitting an airplane, but if it were to occur, the consequences would likely be disastrous. And according to a recent study, the threat to aircraft is only increasing.
The researchers behind the study, based at the University of British Columbia in Canada, analyzed global flight data to map out where planes are concentrated in the sky, then compared this with historical records of uncontrolled rocket body reentries.
One factor driving the rising risk is the large-scale deployment of satellites, such as SpaceX’s Starlink, which will eventually return to Earth’s atmosphere.
With more satellites and rockets being launched into orbit and air traffic increasing, the probability of a collision is growing, the researchers found. Although we do have some ability to track falling space debris, it remains a significant concern.
“The highest-density regions, around major airports, have a 0.8 percent chance per year of being affected by an uncontrolled reentry,” write the researchers in their published paper.
“This rate rises to 26 percent for larger but still busy areas of airspace, such as that found in the northeastern United States, northern Europe, or around major cities in the Asia-Pacific region.”
In 2021, The Aerospace Corporation estimated that the odds of a plane being fatally struck by an object falling from space were close to 1 in 100,000.
Even a tiny fragment of a falling rocket or satellite burning up during reentry could be enough to bring down a plane, making passenger safety difficult to ensure. Estimates indicate that debris as small as a single gram could cause significant damage if it struck an aircraft’s windshield or engine.
As the likelihood of interference increases, so does the chance that certain sections of airspace will need to be temporarily closed—leading to heavier congestion in other regions, as well as flight delays or cancellations.
“This situation puts national authorities in a dilemma – to close airspace or not – with safety and economic implications either way,” write the researchers.
Predicting the exact reentry path of uncontrolled objects can be difficult, which often means that large airspace areas must be closed as a precaution. This has already happened before, as seen with the uncontrolled descent of the Long March 5B rocket body in 2022.
According to the researchers, a viable solution exists: investing in controlled rocket reentry. While the technology to do this is available, fewer than 35 percent of launches currently implement it, leaving the aviation industry to bear most of the risk.
Ongoing efforts aim to improve safety both in the air and in space, but they require commitment from governments and private sector companies. It shouldn’t take a catastrophe to prompt action.
“Over 2,300 rocket bodies are already in orbit and will eventually reenter in an uncontrolled manner,” write the researchers. “Airspace authorities will face the challenge of uncontrolled reentries for decades to come.”
The research has been published in Scientific Reports.
