In April 2026, NASA is set to launch a crew of four astronauts as part of the Artemis II mission, a circumlunar flight planned to last for 10 days. This mission is a precursor to Artemis III, the highly anticipated return to the Moon, currently scheduled for mid-2027. Alongside this, NASA plans to deploy the Lunar Gateway, also slated for 2027, to facilitate regular annual missions to the Moon. With collaboration from international and commercial partners, NASA aims to establish a lunar base and supporting infrastructure to enable a “sustained program of lunar exploration and development.” However, these ambitious plans have faced multiple delays, budget constraints, and technical challenges. Given the current political uncertainties in the United States, further delays remain a potential concern. Meanwhile, China and its partners are aggressively advancing their plans to create a lunar base at the South Pole-Aitken Basin—the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS)—which could rival NASA’s Artemis Program. This competitive dynamic has sparked questions about which nation will first send a crewed mission to the Moon and establish a sustainable presence there.
Back to the Moon to Stay!
NASA’s renewed focus on the Moon dates back to the NASA Authorization Act of 2005, which allocated funding for robotic space exploration and Earth observation programs. Crucially, the Act also mandated the development of a sustained human presence on the Moon to advance exploration, science, commerce, and U.S. leadership in space, serving as a stepping stone for future exploration of Mars and beyond. This vision led to the creation of the Constellation Program, aimed at returning astronauts to the Moon for the first time since Apollo 17 in 1972.

Over the years, NASA’s plans have evolved due to unforeseen challenges such as the Great Recession (2007-2009) and budget shortfalls. By 2010, NASA introduced a new vision called the Moon to Mars mission architecture, which included the development of the Space Launch System (SLS) and the Orion spacecraft. In 2017, the Artemis Program was formally launched, aiming to establish a “sustained program of lunar exploration and development.” The program’s goals include returning astronauts to the lunar surface by 2028 and creating a permanent base near the lunar south pole.
NASA has secured partnerships with numerous space agencies and national governments through the Artemis Accords and collaborated with commercial entities via the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) and Human Landing System (HLS) programs. In response, China and Roscosmos announced plans in 2021 to establish a permanent base at the Moon’s south pole—the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). Their timeline aims for the first crewed landing by 2030, with China’s Long March 10 rockets launching the Mengzhou spacecraft and the Lanyue lunar lander. The spacecraft will carry taikonauts to the Moon’s surface and back.
The Gateway & Base Camp
In 2012, NASA proposed a cislunar station, initially called the Deep Space Habitat, to support the Moon to Mars mission architecture. By 2018, the concept evolved into the Lunar Gateway, now a collaborative project involving NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), and the UAE’s Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre (MBRSC). The Lunar Gateway will include two primary elements: the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) and the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO), scheduled to launch no sooner than 2027. Additional modules will include the European System Providing Refueling, Infrastructure, and Telecommunications (ESPRIT), the Lunar International Habitation Module (Lunar I-HAB Module), the Canadarm3 robotic manipulator arms, and the Crew and Science Airlock Module.
In 2020, NASA outlined the Artemis Base Camp as part of its Lunar Surface Sustainability Concept, detailing three key elements to sustain a lunar presence and support extensive science operations:
- Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV): A vehicle for crew transport within the landing zone.
- Habitable Mobility Platform (HMP): A pressurized rover allowing crews to conduct lunar surface missions lasting up to 45 days.
- Foundation Surface Habitat (FSH): A habitat accommodating up to four crew members for shorter surface stays.
The Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion spacecraft are critical to these missions, with development beginning in 2011. In 2018, NASA accelerated its lunar return timeline under then-Administrator Jim Bridenstine and Vice President Mike Pence, targeting 2024 for a crewed Moon landing. However, delays in the Lunar Gateway’s development necessitated the HLS contract, resulting in concepts like SpaceX’s Starship HLS and Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mk. 2.
The ILRS
In June 2021, the China National Space Agency (CNSA) and Roscosmos formalized their partnership to develop the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). The partnership’s roadmap divides the project into three phases:
- Phase I – Reconnaissance (2021-2025): Exploring the South Pole-Aitken Basin and conducting sample-return missions via China’s Chang’e program to identify suitable ILRS sites and verify soft-landing technologies.
- Phase II – Construction (2025-2030): Establishing the ILRS command center, refining site selection, and building infrastructure. This phase also includes testing technologies for in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) and 3D printing.
- Phase III – Utilization (2030-2035): Completing all orbital and surface facilities for energy, communication, research, and transportation services.

Key ILRS missions include:
- ILRS-1: Establishing command, energy, and telecommunications facilities.
- ILRS-2: Developing lunar research and exploration facilities.
- ILRS-3: Verifying ISRU technologies.
- ILRS-4: Testing biomedical experiments and sample collection.
- ILRS-5: Creating astronomy and Earth observation facilities.
Issues and Delays
NASA’s Artemis Program has faced significant delays due to cost overruns, management challenges, and technical setbacks. The SLS, initially slated for launch in 2016, experienced delays that pushed its first flight to November 2022. Artemis I, an uncrewed circumlunar mission, marked the first successful flight of the SLS. Artemis II, originally scheduled for 2023, was delayed to April 2026, with Artemis III moved to mid-2027 due to legal disputes and technical issues with the life support system and heat shield.
SpaceX’s Starship has also encountered setbacks. While SpaceX has made progress with orbital flights and the Starship HLS, recent delays include a failed flight in January 2025 and FAA penalties. Concerns persist regarding the complex orbital refueling architecture required for the Artemis III mission, with estimates of 4-16 launches needed to refuel a single Starship HLS.
Is Roscosmos Out?
Russia’s space program has been significantly affected by geopolitical and financial challenges, particularly following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This includes severed ties with the European Space Agency and a decline in launch activity. The Luna-25 mission, essential to the ILRS, failed in 2023, while subsequent missions have been delayed until 2027 or later. Despite these setbacks, China’s robust space program continues to progress independently, with milestones like the Long March 10 rocket and the Lanyue lander on track for a 2030 crewed mission.

Conclusions
China appears to be on track to send taikonauts to the Moon by 2030, supported by its successful Chang’e program and advancements in heavy-lift rockets. NASA, while facing delays, has the advantage of experience and established mission elements like the SLS and Orion spacecraft. While Artemis III’s timeline may slip further, NASA’s original target of 2028 for a crewed lunar landing remains within reach. Ultimately, the race to the Moon underscores the dynamic competition between spacefaring nations, with NASA and China positioned as the primary contenders for lunar dominance.