The object appeared to be in an eccentric orbit. Soon, astronomers realized what it really was.
A near-Earth “asteroid” recently identified by astronomers analyzing telescope data has turned out to be Elon Musk’s car.
On January 2, the International Astronomical Union’s Minor Planet Center announced what appeared to be the discovery of a new asteroid. The object was designated 2018 CN41, named after the year and month when it was first observed through telescopes. The “asteroid” followed an eccentric orbit, classifying it as a Near-Earth Object (NEO), bringing it within the Moon’s orbit at a distance of less than 240,000 kilometers (150,000 miles) from Earth.
While undeniably an object near Earth, the Minor Planet Center issued a correction the next day after confirming that the supposed asteroid was actually Elon Musk’s own Tesla Roadster. The car had been launched into space in February 2018, attached to the Falcon Heavy Upper stage booster.
“The designation 2018 CN41, announced in MPEC 2025-A38 on Jan 2, 2025 UT, is being deleted. The object was reported through the identifications pipeline as a 3-nighter linkage found in the isolated tracklet file and more tracklets were linked in the ITF, leading to a small object on a heliocentric NEO orbit,” the Minor Planet Center said in a correction.
“The next day it was pointed out the orbit matches an artificial object 2018-017A, Falcon Heavy Upper stage with the Tesla roadster. The designation 2018 CN41 is being deleted and will be listed as omitted.”
This kind of mix-up happens occasionally, with newly observed objects sometimes turning out to be previously identified ones. In 2007, for example, what was initially thought to be a new object was later confirmed to be the European Space Agency’s Rosetta spacecraft.
The Tesla Roadster, which Elon Musk personally drove before it was launched, continues to orbit in a path that crosses both Mars and Earth’s orbits.
Tracking the car isn’t exactly a priority for astronomers, but some have attempted to predict its long-term fate and whether it might eventually impact Earth. In 2018, one research paper tackled this question, concluding that the vehicle has a reasonable probability of colliding with Earth at some point in the distant future.
By analyzing the car’s orbit and potential gravitational encounters that could alter its trajectory, researchers estimated that the Roadster has about a 22 percent chance of impacting Earth, a 12 percent chance of striking Venus, and a roughly equal probability of colliding with the Sun as with Venus. Fortunately for Musk, these events are projected to occur over millions of years, making them unlikely to affect Tesla’s stock prices.
The vehicle is expected to make another close approach in 2047, coming within approximately 5 million kilometers (3.1 million miles) of Earth. Beyond a century from now, repeated planetary encounters will make it “impossible” to predict the car’s chaotic orbit with certainty.
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